Most of us have realised the death of Facebook is a long way off, despite many articles in recent years, and months, stating the contrary. Their results go for strength to strength and soon they will command 20% of the world’s mobile ad budget.
However I think it’s set to change focus as we move into 2015. The reason why? Research reveals less young people – those in their teens and early twenties - are logging on.
Facebook has struggled to compete with the social apps such as Kik and Snapchat which are attracting a younger audience, as these challenger social media platforms give people more control over their content. This is a big issue for Facebook, particularly as it tries to balance monetisation of the site to advertisers with its offering to its users.
What will happen is post education young professionals, 22 to 35 year olds, will start to follow the lead of the younger generation and increasingly embrace the benefits of greater control by moving away and spending time on other networks that put them in the driving seat. These include anonymous networks such as mobile app Secret, as people experiment with different forms of social sharing.
So what’s Facebook’s new role?
To put it simply, Facebook is set to become an aggregator of content from multiple different apps / networks as it solidifies its position as the social login service of the internet. The mass market breakthrough of wearables like the Apple Watch in 2015 and the growth of apps that run everything from our diets to our training programmes will add vast streams of content that is being shared across Facebook. This increases the content pressure on the Facebook newsfeed, decreasing its value as a place to connect with friends. Facebook will struggle to aggregate life information of users in a consumable format, balancing the real estate it has for ads and the content pressure on the newsfeed.
Also, there’s an increasing trend online for niche services that will continue into 2015. This is due to an increase in social apps and wearables which will focus on helping us manage and connect with others around niche areas of our lives, such as exercise, health and dating. These will continue to expand in number and adoption. Actually, Facebook is investigating creating its own health tracking and monitoring platforms and apps, and looking at setting up a money transfer service via Facebook Messenger. Brands will start to take advantage of the huge wealth of user-generated content that emanates from these apps and is shared across social networks like Instagram, Facebook and Twitter.
One thing that wouldn’t surprise me is if Facebook tries to buy Tinder in 2015. Why wouldn’t it? Facebook needs the youth market and this is one of the most sure-fire ways to get it. Integrated status changes and Tinder could bring another realm to dating, particularly as the social aggregation features of Facebook would give you a much broader glimpse into someone’s life to help find a match.
When it comes to rumours a big one is that Facebook is developing an app that will allow its users anonymity. This could help bring back the younger demographic. Watch this space.
In fact you can’t argue that Facebook has not made efforts to keep up with what’s happening in the social media marketplace. They have made two genius moves in purchasing Whatsapp and Instagram. Whatsapp’s growth curve means it’s set to outstrip Facebook in daily active users and in the video battle Instagram Hyperlapse trumps Vine and takes a big chunk out of YouTube. I expect more brands to successfully engage with consumers via Instagram in 2015 using both images and short form video.
Facebook will still have an important role to play in the future. However, in the long term, losing the younger demographic and with it a ‘social’ focus; where it’s set to be valuable is in becoming an aggregator of all this new social content. And while you can never say never with Facebook it would take an amazing development for the business to build up its younger demographic user base without further acquisitions. My bet is social experiences and tools will continue to splinter and Facebook will counter this by continuing to be an aggressive acquirer of new networks and apps, furthering its dominant position as the social login service across the social web, whilst experimenting with becoming an aggregator of this content.
By Richard Jones, CEO of EngageSciences.
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